Evaluation Rainfall Regime at the Hydroelectric Power Plant toward Climate Change

Main Article Content

Francisco Pereira, Dr.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9432-641X
Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Dr.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3740-1583
Jose Leandro Neris
Matheus Rippel
Claudinéia Brazil, Dr.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9417-4671
Luciane Salvi
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6964-1522
Nei Marçal

Abstract

The hydroelectric plants are first in the Brazilian energy matrix, so irregularities in the rainfall regime can affect the energy generation, thus evidencing the need to know the rainfall distribution in the studied area. This work aimed to evaluate possible analysis of the impacts of climate change on the rainfall regime in the Machadinho hydroelectric region. For the research development, the IPCC-AR5 pessimistic scenario was used, representing a scenario with a continuous population growth and high carbon dioxide emissions. From the historical series and organized projections, precipitation anomalies were calculated. Analyzing the difference between the average of the month and the climatological normal, it was inferred that the model used presented a positive trend for precipitation in the period from 2026 - 2100, projecting anomalies between 25 and 200 mm per month. A greater amplitude is observed in the precipitation of 2076-2100, indicating an increase in the occurrence of extreme events of precipitation, mainly in the spring period. Considering that the rains in the Machadinho hydroelectric region are increasing in the scenarios analyzed, the average water level in the reservoir of the plant tends to increase.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
Pereira, F., Bierhals, E., Neris, J., Rippel, M., Brazil, C., Salvi, L., & Marçal, N. (2017). Evaluation Rainfall Regime at the Hydroelectric Power Plant toward Climate Change. International Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs, 1(3), 62-65. https://doi.org/10.25034/ijcua.2018.3682
Section
Articles

References

Ivanilto,A.(2003). Previsão de vazão em tempo real no Rio Uruguai com base na previsão meteorológica. Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul.

Grimm, I. J. (2016). Mudanças Climáticas e Turismo: estratégias de adaptação e mitigação. Tese de Doutorado, Pós-graduação em Meio Ambiente e Desenvolvimento da Universidade Federal do Paraná. Curitiba, 248.

Moraes,F.(2013). Entenda como são feitos os relatórios do IPCC. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 06 maio 2016.

Nimer, E. (1989) Climatologia do Brasil.(2nd edition). Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.

Schork, G.,Hermes-Silva, S., Beux, L. F., Zaniboni-Filho, E., Nuñer, A. P. O. (2012). Diagnóstico da pesca artesanal na usina hidrelétrica de Machadinho, alto rio Uruguai – Brasil. Bol. Inst. Pesca, São Paulo, 38(2),97 –108.

Silveira,S.S., Souza Filho, F., Martins, E. S., Oliveira, J., Costa, Alexandre, Nobrega, M., Souza, S. A. (2011). Climate change in the São Francisco river basin: analysis of precipitation and temperature. RBRH, 21, 416 – 428. Porto Alegre abr. /jun. 2016.

Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonsds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomsonm, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., Rose, S. K. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31.

Most read articles by the same author(s)